Military Coup in Palestine?
A Military Coup in Palestine? (See here) a DEBKA article that argues for this "solution" to the Hamas election victory in Palestine.
Someone take the crack pipe away from the DEBKA writers. Why is a Hamas victory such a disaster that it requires a military coup? Look what has happened since the Hamas victory. Hamas has been cornered into extending the Hudna. If the "legitimate government" of Palestine, which is now comprised of a Hamas majority, sanctions violence against Israel, Israel now has someone to hold accountable. If Hamas, the freely elected representatives of the majority of Palestinian voters, allows or even encourages violence, then any reprisals upon the Palestinians will have been earned. The Palestinians had the freedom of choice and they chose Hamas. Now the Palestinian people must deal with the repercussions of how they voted.
If a military coup was launched and was successful, Hamas could once again retreat into the shadows. The insurgency that results could make Iraq look like a peaceful neighborhood in contrast. Hamas could launch suicide attacks within Israel while the military government of Palestine claims they are powerless to prevent them. What then? Israel is going to launch military attacks against the military junta they encouraged to take power?
I tend to think Hamas is pretty much boxed in. If they, acting as the "official government" conduct terrorist attacks against Israel, Israel will be retaliating against a group that was put into power by the majority of Palestinians. It will be difficult for any but the most unreasonable within the international community to object to this justified retaliation.
Oh, there is a caveat to that last paragraph. That is contingent upon Israel continuing to make progress when it comes to halting the continuing expansion of the illegal settlements and putting a muzzle on the more rabid settlers that try to stir up trouble. Thus far it would seem PM Olmert is promising some further progress on this issue and his Kadima party is poised to retain control of the Israeli government.
While what Olmert is talking about is not "enough" on the settlement and final borders issue, former PM Sharon has shown us what is possible once the head of Israeli government actually takes control and starts living with the reality of international pressure. If Sharon can be pressured into withdrawing from Gaza after the campaign promises he made to win election, just think what is possible with PM Olmert with what he is already stating will be necessary.
Israel is just going to have to face reality, just like the international community is going to have to face reality. The reality is that Hamas is not a realistic partner with whom Israel should have to negotiate. However that does not mean that "final borders" are going to be decided by dictates from the Israeli government. Concerns from the international community are going to have to be taken into account. If Israel is reasonable, the international community will support her as she takes reasonable steps to defend herself. However if Israel is obstinate and insists on the unreasonable international support is going to be eroded.
If the Palestinian People want to be part of the equation when it comes to deciding what a final settlement might look like. They were given the chance to vote for what they wanted and what they voted for was unreasonable. If they want a seat at the bargaining table, the people they voted for are going to have to signal they are reasonable. If their government insists on the unreasonable they will not even be invited to the bargaining table and all the issues will be decided without their input.
As long as Israel is reasonable, Israel has nothing to fear from a Hamas led government. However the danger is that the right wing will prevent Israel from taking this turn of events and taking advantage of it.
Someone take the crack pipe away from the DEBKA writers. Why is a Hamas victory such a disaster that it requires a military coup? Look what has happened since the Hamas victory. Hamas has been cornered into extending the Hudna. If the "legitimate government" of Palestine, which is now comprised of a Hamas majority, sanctions violence against Israel, Israel now has someone to hold accountable. If Hamas, the freely elected representatives of the majority of Palestinian voters, allows or even encourages violence, then any reprisals upon the Palestinians will have been earned. The Palestinians had the freedom of choice and they chose Hamas. Now the Palestinian people must deal with the repercussions of how they voted.
If a military coup was launched and was successful, Hamas could once again retreat into the shadows. The insurgency that results could make Iraq look like a peaceful neighborhood in contrast. Hamas could launch suicide attacks within Israel while the military government of Palestine claims they are powerless to prevent them. What then? Israel is going to launch military attacks against the military junta they encouraged to take power?
I tend to think Hamas is pretty much boxed in. If they, acting as the "official government" conduct terrorist attacks against Israel, Israel will be retaliating against a group that was put into power by the majority of Palestinians. It will be difficult for any but the most unreasonable within the international community to object to this justified retaliation.
Oh, there is a caveat to that last paragraph. That is contingent upon Israel continuing to make progress when it comes to halting the continuing expansion of the illegal settlements and putting a muzzle on the more rabid settlers that try to stir up trouble. Thus far it would seem PM Olmert is promising some further progress on this issue and his Kadima party is poised to retain control of the Israeli government.
While what Olmert is talking about is not "enough" on the settlement and final borders issue, former PM Sharon has shown us what is possible once the head of Israeli government actually takes control and starts living with the reality of international pressure. If Sharon can be pressured into withdrawing from Gaza after the campaign promises he made to win election, just think what is possible with PM Olmert with what he is already stating will be necessary.
Israel is just going to have to face reality, just like the international community is going to have to face reality. The reality is that Hamas is not a realistic partner with whom Israel should have to negotiate. However that does not mean that "final borders" are going to be decided by dictates from the Israeli government. Concerns from the international community are going to have to be taken into account. If Israel is reasonable, the international community will support her as she takes reasonable steps to defend herself. However if Israel is obstinate and insists on the unreasonable international support is going to be eroded.
If the Palestinian People want to be part of the equation when it comes to deciding what a final settlement might look like. They were given the chance to vote for what they wanted and what they voted for was unreasonable. If they want a seat at the bargaining table, the people they voted for are going to have to signal they are reasonable. If their government insists on the unreasonable they will not even be invited to the bargaining table and all the issues will be decided without their input.
As long as Israel is reasonable, Israel has nothing to fear from a Hamas led government. However the danger is that the right wing will prevent Israel from taking this turn of events and taking advantage of it.
posted by Little David at 3/08/2006 08:57:00 AM
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